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“A politician thinks of the next election.
A statesman, of the next generation.”

J.F. Clarke

“A politician thinks of the next election.
A statesman, of the next generation.”

J.F. Clarke

“A politician thinks of the next election.
A statesman, of the next generation.”

J.F. Clarke

Mikhail Krasnyansky, PhD, retired professor

WHAT DOES NOT THE US POLITICAL ELITE UNDERSTAND?

“A politician thinks of the next election.
A statesman, of the next generation.”

J.F. Clarke

The 21st century is the era of revolutionary technological changes in spheres of digitals, industry, information, espionage, weapons, wars. It requires America a new political agenda, a new system of priorities and concepts, and a new tasks list in science, industry, education, and politics.

The main thing: It is absolutely necessary to understand for top-politicians the scale of the today's challenges facing both America and humanity as a whole. Unfortunately, today’s American political elite is engaged in completely different tasks.

The two largest US political parties – Democratic and Republican - have completely immersed in a disgraceful and dirty “cold war without the rules” turning United States of America into "Disunited States of America", and the US Supreme Court turned from an independent branch of power - into the office serving the interests of the Republican or Democratic Party (depending on the quantitative ratio of the "party judges" there.)

As a result, the common goals and national unity disappeared first from the U.S. Congress and then from the entire America. Today the USA seems not the united country, but some space occupied by warring tribes. Efficient governance of America is lost.

The irreconcilable enmity between the US Democratic and Republican parties makes it impossible to further modernize America and "freezes" its progress in all important areas for many coming years.

There is a strong wish to shout in address to Democrats and Republicans the Mercutio's anathema from the famous play by Shakespeare “Romeo and Juliet”: “A plague on both your houses”.

*****

Here are more detailed “List of incomprehension”:

1) About 2040 (via 20 years only!) solar, wind and hydrogen energy will almost completely replace coal and oil and partly gas. А significant part of the US elite doesn't realize the main advantages of renewable energy: Sun and wind don’t need to be searched, be mined, be transported, and be burned in furnaces! According to DOE's data, to 2025, 1 "green kWh” of energy will cost as 1 "coal kWh”. Electric cars will be on the roads (by 2040 90% of all sold motor cars in the world will be electrical). Airliners and space rockets will fly through “non-fuel” technologies (laser, photon, magnetron, or plasma engines). 3D-printing technologies with AI will replace mechanical engineering and building industry. Industrial robots will replace workers, technicians, and farmers. Artificial intelligence (AI) will replace engineers, lawyers, teachers, doctors, and other degreed professionals. Gene therapy will replace pharmaceutical pills and capsules and also (partly) surgical scalpel. Carbon and silicic nanocomposites will replace metals (steel, aluminum, titanium). Artificial (biotechnological) meat and milk will partly replace cattle and poultry farming. Blockchain-technologies will be used for public administration, management of finance, and for national elections. Blockchain and cryptocurrencies will disconnect a significant part of humanity from corrupt government officials (tens of millions of officials will become unnecessary) and, most importantly, from the current crazy system of central and large private banks that print money "non-stop", give out loans to all in a row, and sell “junk bonds” creating "financial bubbles" and financial crises one after another. (There is a good cowboy byword: “If the horse is dead, you have to get off!”) There will be super-speedy quantum computers and quantum Internet. Also, the super-speedy 5G Internet will lead to creation of "global digital economy", and neuro-interfaces will allow you to instantly transfer your thoughts and images to a digital device or even to another person and will bring the new revolution in communications. I.e. essence of labor in the close future will change in a revolutionary fashion. Once again, I emphasize that for the first time in the history of civilization it is not about replacing some jobs for humans with other jobs for humans but about the mass replacement of jobs “for humans” with the jobs “for robots". Humanity can partly lose the own economic value..
Note: But keep in mind: any artificial intelligence is forceless against natural human stupidity!

 

2) Same will go for the Army Forces of any advanced countries: soldiers will be replaced by combatant mini-robots; military tanks will be replaced by robotic armor-machines; military aviation will be replaced by hordes of combatant drones; navy will be replaced by self-driving (through AI) mini-corvettes and mini-submarines. Therefore, a military division will consist of 10,000 combatant mini-robots, 2,000 self-operating armored platforms equipped with laser and electromagnetic weapons, 500 combatant drones, plus 50 cyber-attacking quantum computers. (About 2040, all the US huge and clumsyaircraft carrierswill be suitable for intimidating of Somalia pirates only!)Also, technologies will be developed to hack human brain, not just computers. And I fear (is the American political elite realizes that?): in the next World War, not the one who has more military rockets, planes and tanks will win, but onewho is ready to kill and destroy millions of own and foreign citizens.

 

3) Instead of subsidizing the PAST, the U.S. Government and American elite should invest in the FUTURE, i.e. in the technologies of the 21st, but not the 20th century (see #1, 2).

4) The economy of the future must aim for stability, but not to unending growth. Now it is a "dead-end economy" based on the endless growth of consumption (since 1900, the world's population has grown 5 times, but fuel consumption has increased 16 times, and fish catch - 35 times!) at the expense of the unrestrained growth of borrowing (over the past five years - 2013-2017 - the debt burden in the world has increased by 12 trillion dollars, while the world economy has increased only by 5.5 trillion; in other words, every dollar of loans turned into only 45 cents of new GDP. Also, unfortunately, the growth of US market has ceased to be directly related to the growth of the well-being of its population (especially since 80% of US stock market shares belong to 10% the richest of Americans). The structure of the US GDP does not include the benefits that exist outside the market: the level of poverty, the availability of medical services, child mortality, access to education (in 2018, the US students’ total debt for tuition was $ 1.5 trillion), the level of criminality, etc. — that is, the life quality for the population is more important than GDP and Dow index growth "at any price"

5) The U.S.President can protect his country from foreign products and foreign workforce, but the presidents who can protect American markets from robots, 3D-printers, artificial intelligence, genetic technologies, etc. – do not exist! For America to move forward, it needs the next outstanding scientific and technological breakthroughs..

 

6) Global climatic turbulence will be the cause of increasing in number of hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, “awaked” volcanos and wildfires, i.e. the budgetary expenses to eliminate the effects of natural disasters will constantly grow by exponent.

 

7) It is necessary to stop categorically senseless mass death of Americans (predominantly, young) within the country because of: А) Gun violence – about 30,000/year; B) Drug overdose – about 60,000/year; C) Car fatal crashes – about 35,000/year; total – 125,000 persons per year. It is the monstrous number!

 

8) How and what our children are taught today at all levels of school will lead to the fact that tomorrow they either will not find jobs or will lose it quickly. We must teach our kids to be creative and innovative. Natural resources, labor, and capital lose their value and significance, whereas KNOWLEDGE and INTELLECT are becoming the number one commodity.

9) All following generations cannot count on a full-time job at a government office, a plant, or a corporation; on a steady salary, medical insurance, and future retirement benefits. They will need a more active stance. They will have to ask themselves, “What do I really want and can do? What business can I start? How can I contribute in development of civilization and at the same time provide for myself and my family?” But, maybe, first of all, it is necessary to make motherhood animportant and high-paying job? Or, probably, there will be a lot of work and jobs when we begin to fly to other planets and to create thereat colonies?
Note about the colonization of the Moon and Mars: (I emphasize: I am not talking about the study of the Moon and Mars, but about their populating/settlement). Mankind, which failed to build a fair, safe and happy community on Earth, now wants to colonize the Moon and Mars. And here is how it can be. At first, the Americans will arrive there and declare the Moon (Mars) the planet of American Freedom and Democracy, declare the dollar the main currency of the Solar System and impose sanctionsagainst the Sun. After that, the Chinese will arrive there, build high-tech Chinatown and will wait when the corpses of their enemies float by. Then the Russians will arrive there and create branch of the Kremlin intelligence services, in order to obstruct for Americans in every possible way. At last, Islamists will arrive there and begin to kill all the "infidels." As a result, we get Earth-2. Well, and why was there to fly?

10) Over the course of the next 30 years 90% of the existing fatal diseases will be curable with the help of the newest bio- and gene-technologies, and the average life expectancy will approach 90 years. Therefore, by 2050 there will be five cheerful seniors for one working American!

Note: However, the mechanism of aging is built into human genome (and in all alive organisms) not for nothing: he provides evolution of biological species due to alternation of generations. If we will suppress this mechanism created by the nature (or by the Lord?), we probably worsen quality of human population, and it will surely create to us new unknown problems…

11) Future generations («digital generations») will find themselves in the world where only the minority of population (20-25%) is working – and these20-25% will produce the minimal GDP required for the entire country. For the rest of Americans (and Europeans too) not only there will be no work, but will not have a real need for it. The super-challenge of the future is to find worthwhile purpose for the people who are not going to work for decades. In other words, we are talking about finding in future a new way of life, relevance, and even success not tied to the everyday professional activity.

Note: But you need to understand that even if all the inhabitants of the Earth are paid a stable minimum financial allowance and the work becomes optional, someone will still be more convincing and popular in public discussions, someone in music salons, on the stage or in sports, someone will be more attractive “just physically” due to natural beauty and grace, etc. So, social inequality will not go anywhere, it’s just that it will not be “financial” in the future. I.e., most likely, nothing will come of the idea of getting rid of social inequality in human society.

 

12) As for international policy:

A) Russia (more precisely - the Kremlin) will continue its aggressive and destructive politics: to expand political and military influence from the Arctic up to Africa and sow the chaos all over the world; to carry out terroristic attacks around the world against their political opponents; to support and unite the Dictators and Despots on all continents; to discredit the Western Democracy; to slacken of the NATO and EU; to sow (through Internet) discord and hostility between different groups of Americans and Europeans; to bribe all corrupt Western politicians (unfortunately, them are too much)

B) China will successfully aim for world supremacy pushing away America to the second place in the world. The main danger of China to the US - it is a ruthless “scientific-technological” rival which, since 2017, started to outstrip the US in scientific and technological competition.
(For instance: In 2016, China launched the world's first quantum communication satellite "Mo Tzi"; in 2017, China has produced 130,000 robots, and the US - only 30,000; also,China is ahead the US in the engineering and manufacture of combat robots; China invests tens of billions dollars in the development of artificial intelligence; in 2017, one million electrical vehicles were manufactured and sold in the world, of which 500,000 - in China; in 2018, China had 10 times more of 5G-Internet base stations than them in the USA; in 2018, China completed the construction of 88 skyscrapers (above 200 m), and the US only 13; China is ahead the US in the manufacture and applying of industrial 3D-printers;January 3, 2019 Chinese space station Chang’e-4 landed on the far side of the Moon for the first time in history; by 2020, capacity of renewable energy (WWS - wind, water, sunlight) in China will attain 1 billion kW, and investments in WWS will be $370 billion - it is 3 times more than in the USA; in 2019, Chinese scientists for the first time in the world created and tested autonomous DNA-nanorobots; China overtakes the US in the number of patent applications; etc.)
If America fails to mobilize its national intellect, maybe China but not the US will write the following chapter of global history in the 21st century.

C) The world has become at least bipolar; the absolute hegemony of the West has come to an end; the USA is lost leadership in military technologies; the UN Security Council is paralyzed.

*****

I am the one who, on the nose of the Titanic, shouts: “Iceberg!” But the passengers do not want to hear me, they prefer to continue dancing. Time to realize: our planet is not a place for the competition of several nuclear countries: which of them stronger and more frightful and this is not “sale market” for the huge corporations - this is, first of all, a HOUSE for almost eight billion people.

The development of mankind is now going degressive curve: from systemic book thinking to simple visual pictures and images from Instagram. We are witnessing an escalation of primitive content and undergoing a fundamental transformation: from the civilization of systemic thinking of the 20th century, we are moving into the civilization of visual images, where there is no place for analytical thinking. Therefore, the world is increasingly divided not only into the few rich and the many poor (that is well known), but also into many stupid and few smart. Earlier, before the Internet, fools almost could not publish their stupid thoughts, because newspapers and TV rarely cooperated with them. With the advent of the Internet, fools have inexhaustible opportunities to publish their idiocy opinions and theories (such as "Bill Gates - the world villain") and, more importantly, an extensive auditorium readers-fools and viewers-fools (on YouTube) has appeared. It turned out that:
A) there are much more fools in the world (including the USA) than smart people assumed;
B) activity of fools on the Internet significantly exceeds the activity of smart people;
C) fools on the Internet (as in life) gather in aggressive communities (as the great Russian poet and chansonnier Bulat Okudzhava wrote, “Fools like to form a wolf pack with the Chief Fool at the head”).

Unfortunately, development of technologies began to outpace moral development of the person, and these two ways diverge away more and more, darkening ours "the great technological future". Whether will present this new technological future and new moral values for mankind? - I don't know. However, Christian moral values – Ten Commandments which have been given to Moisey by God on Mount Sinai – exist and work more than 3,000 years …

*****

Appendix

Comparative data for the US Presidents' tenures:
 B. Clinton (Dem.), G. Bush-Jr (Repub.), B. Obama (Dem.), and D. Trump (Repub.)

Index B.Clinton
(2000 q4)
G.Bush-Jr
(2008 q4)
B.Obama
(2016 q4)
D.Trump
(3 years of tenure)
(2019 q4)
GDP (up/down) +4.0% -4.6%
(recession)
+2.5% +2.1%
Budget – deficit/surplus Surplus
(+$300 bln)
Deficit
(-$1.4 trln)
Deficit
(-$550 bln)
Deficit
(-$1 trln)
Unemployment (u3 -official rate)
Unemployment (u6 -part-time)  
4%
6.9%
9.5%
13.6%
4.6%
9.2%
(new jobs creating during last 3 years of tenure –
8.1 mln)
3.6%
6.3%
(new jobs creating during first 3 years of tenure –
6.1 mln)
The US national debt $5.7 trln 10.2 trln 19.9 trln $22.2 trln
The US trade deficit $390 bln $816 bln $550 bln $853 bln
S&P500 1300 700 2400 2900
Cost of oil WTI (1 barrel) $30 $140 $50 $60
10-year rate of the US treasury bonds 5.2% 2.5% 2.4% 1.92%
Number of Americans (more 21 years) who don't have the health insurance 39 mln 50 mln 20 mln   28.5 mln
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