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Mikhail Krasnyansky, PhD, retired professor

What Happened to America and the Whole World?

“A politician thinks of the next election.
A statesman, of the next generation.”

J.F. Clarke

The 21st century is the era of revolutionary technological changes in spheres of digitals, industry, information, espionage, weapons, wars.

It requires America a new political agenda, a new system of priorities and concepts, and a new tasks list in science, industry, education, and politics.

Unfortunately, today’s American political elite is engaged in completely different tasks.

The two largest US political parties – Democratic and Republican - have completely immersed in an irresponsible, disgraceful, and dirty “cold war without the rules” turning United States of America into "Disunited States of America".

Moreover, as a result of this irreconcilable enmity, we today, in fact, have instead of one Democratic America - TWO defective "semi-democratic" Americas - Democratic America and Republican America; TWO Congresses - Democratic and Republican; TWO judicial systems (including the Supreme Court) - Democratic and Republican; and even TWO US Constitutions - Democratic and Republican. As a result, the common goals and national unity disappeared from the entire America.

Today the USA seems not the united country, but some space occupied by warring tribes. Efficient governance of America is lost.

There is a strong wish to shout in address to Democrats and Republicans the Mercutio's anathema from the famous play by Shakespeare “Romeo and Juliet”: “A plague on both your houses”.

*****

Here are more detailed “List of happenings”:

1)About 2040 (via 20 years only!) solar, wind and hydrogen energy will almost completely replace coal and oil and partly gas. (А significant part of the US elite doesn't realize the main advantages of renewable energy: sunlight and wind don’t need to be searched, be mined, be transported, and be burned in furnaces!) According to DOE's data, to 2025, 1 "green kWh” of energy will cost as 1 "coal kWh”. Electric cars will be on the roads (by 2040 90% of all sold motor cars in the world will be electrical). Airliners and space rockets will fly through “non-fuel” technologies (laser, photon, magnetron, or plasma engines). 3D-printing technologies with AI will replace mechanical engineering and building industry. Industrial robots will replace workers, technicians, and farmers. Artificial intelligence (AI) will replace engineers, lawyers, teachers, doctors, and other degreed professionals. Gene therapy will replace pharmaceutical pills and capsules and also (partly) surgical scalpel. Carbon and silicic nanocomposites will replace metals (steel, aluminum, titanium). Artificial (biotechnological) meat and milk will partly replace cattle and poultry farming. Blockchain-technologies will be used for public administration, management of finance, and for national elections. Blockchain will disconnect a significant part of humanity from corrupt government officials (tens of millions of officials will become unnecessary). There will be super-speedy quantum computers and quantum Internet. Also, the super-speedy 5G Internet will lead to creation of "global digital economy", and neuro-interfaces will allow you to instantly transfer your thoughts and images to a digital device or even to another person and will bring the new revolution in communications. I.e. essence of labor in the close future will change in a revolutionary fashion. All of this can lead to the loss of 100 million jobs in 40 countries around the world. Once again, I emphasize that for the first time in the history of civilization it is not about replacing some jobs for humans with other jobs for humans but about the mass replacement of jobs “for humans” with the jobs “for robots". Humanity can partly lose the own economic value.
Note: But keep in mind: any artificial intelligence is forceless against natural human stupidity!

 

2) Same will go for the Army Forces of any advanced countries: soldiers will be replaced by combatant mini-robots; military tanks will be replaced by robotic armor-machines; military aviation will be replaced by hordes of combatant drones; navy will be replaced by self-driving (through AI) mini-corvettes and mini-submarines. Therefore, a military division will consist of 10,000 combatant mini-robots, 2,000 self-operating armored platforms equipped with laser and electromagnetic weapons, 500 combatant drones, plus 50 cyber-attacking quantum computers. (About 2040, all the US huge and clumsy aircraft carriers will be suitable for intimidating of Somalia pirates only!) Also, technologies will be developed to hack human brain, not just computers.

 

3) The twentieth century was the arena of fight of communism against capitalism; 21th century became the arena of fight of dictatorship against democracy. And I fear (is the American political elite realizes that?): in the next World War, not the one who has more military rockets, planes and tanks will win, but one who is ready to kill and destroy millions of own and foreign citizens.

4) Instead of subsidizing the PAST (for example, coal and oil), the U.S. Government and American elite should invest in the FUTURE, i.e. in the technologies of the 21st, but not the 20th century (see #1, 2).

5) The economy of the future must aim for stability, but not to unending growth. Now it is a "dead-end economy" based on the endless growth of consumption (since 1900, the world's population has grown 5 times, but fuel consumption has increased 16 times, and fish catch - 35 times!) at the expense of the unrestrained growth of borrowing. Over the late five years - 2013-2017, the debt burden in the world has increased by 12 trillion dollars, while the world economy has increased only by 5.5 trillion; in other words, every dollar of loans turned into only 45 cents of new GDP. Also, unfortunately, the growth of US market has ceased to be directly related to the growth of the well-being of its population. The structure of the US GDP does not include the benefits that exist outside the market: the level of poverty, the availability of medical services, child mortality, access to education (in 2018, the US students’ total debt for tuition was $ 1.5 trillion), the level of criminality, etc. — i.e., the life quality for the population is more important than GDP and Dow index growth "at any price"

 

6) The U.S. President can protect his country from foreign products and foreign workforce, but the presidents who can protect American markets from robots, 3D-printers, artificial intelligence, genetic technologies, etc. – do not exist! For America to move forward, it needs the next outstanding scientific and technological breakthroughs.

 

7) Global climatic turbulence will be the cause of increasing in number of hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, “awaked” volcanos and wildfires, i.e. the budgetary expenses to eliminate the effects of natural disasters will constantly grow by exponent. Only during 2017-2019, the horrific hurricanes in the USA destroyed about 100,000 houses, killed more 120 people; dozens of wildfires have raged again on nearly 4 million hectares in California, Oregon and Washington states since August 2020. The fire has devastated about 9,000 residential buildings and other constructions and killed at least 40 people. Total damage 2017-2020 is about $500 billion.

 

8) It is necessary to stop categorically senseless mass death of Americans (predominantly, young) within the country because of: А) Gun violence (including suicides) – about 30,000/year; B) Drug overdose – about 60,000/year; C) Car fatal crashes – about 35,000/year; total – 125,000 persons per year. It is the monstrous number!

9) How and what our children are taught today at all levels of school will lead to the fact that tomorrow they either will not find jobs or will lose it quickly. The development of youth now is going along degressive curve: from systemic book thinking to simple visual pictures and images in Instagram. We must teach our kids to be creative and innovative. Natural resources, labor, and capital lose their value and significance, whereas KNOWLEDGE and INTELLECT are becoming the number one commodity.

10) All following generations cannot count on a full-time job at a government office, a plant, or a corporation; on a steady salary, medical insurance, and future retirement benefits. They will need a more active stance. They will have to ask themselves, “What do I really want and can do? What business can I start? How can I contribute in development of civilization and at the same time provide for myself and my family?” But, maybe, first of all, it is necessary to make motherhood an important and high-paying job? Or, probably, there will be a lot of work and jobs when we begin to fly to other planets and to create thereat colonies?

Note about the colonization of the Moon and Mars:: (I emphasize: I am not talking about the study of the Moon and Mars, but about their populating). Mankind, which failed to build a fair, safe and happy community on Earth, now wants to colonize the Moon and Mars. And here is how it can be. At first, the Americans will arrive there and declare the Moon (Mars) the planet of American Freedom and Democracy, declare the dollar the main currency of the Solar System and impose sanctions against the Sun for shining without the approval of the US Senate. After that, the Chinese will arrive there, build high-tech Chinatown and will wait when the corpses of their enemies float by. Then the Russians will arrive there and create branch of the Kremlin intelligence services, in order to obstruct for Americans in every possible way. At last, Islamists will arrive there and begin to kill all the "infidels." As a result, we get Earth-2. Well, and why was there to fly?

11) Over the course of the next 30 years 90% of the existing fatal diseases will be curable with the help of the newest bio- and gene-technologies, and the average life expectancy will approach 90 years. Therefore, by 2050 there will be five cheerful seniors for one working American!

Note: However, the mechanism of aging is built into human genome (and in all alive organisms) not for nothing: he provides evolution of biological species due to alternation of generations. If we will suppress this mechanism created by the nature (or by the Lord?), we probably worsen quality of human population, and it will surely create to us new unknown problems…

 

12) Future generations («digital generations») will find themselves in the world where only the minority of population (20-25%) is working – and these20-25% will produce the minimal GDP required for the entire country. For the rest of Americans (and Europeans too) not only there will be no work, but will not have a real need for it. The super-challenge of the future is to find worthwhile purpose for the people who are not going to work for decades. In other words, we are talking about finding in future a new way of life, relevance, and even success not tied to the everyday professional activity.

Note: But you need to understand that even if all the inhabitants of the Earth are paid a stable minimum financial allowance and the work becomes optional, someone will still be more convincing and popular in public discussions, someone in music salons, on the stage or in sports, someone will be more attractive “just physically” due to natural beauty and grace, etc. So, social inequality will not go anywhere, it’s just that it will not be “financial” in the future. I.e., most likely, nothing will come of the idea of getting rid of social inequality in human society.

13) As for international situation: The world has stopped to be monopolar; the USA is lost moral leadership around the world; China is catching up with the United States in economy, military power, intelligent technologies, and world influence; Russia was reborned in the accustomed role of the "Evil Empire" (according to R. Reagan); the UN Security Council is paralyzed; other international organizations –all UN, WTO, Interpol, etc. - have almost completely lost their credibility.

*****

I am the one who, on the nose of the Titanic, shouts: “Iceberg!” But the passengers do not want to hear me, they prefer to continue dancingamid luxurious interiors. Time to realize: our planet is not a place for the competition of several nuclear countries: which of them stronger and more frightful, and this is not “sale market” for the huge corporations - this is, first of all, a HOUSE for almost eight billion people.

Unfortunately, development of technologies began to outpace moral development of the person, and these two ways diverge away more and more, darkening ours "the great technological future". Whether will present new technological future and new moral values for mankind? - I don't know. However, Christian moral values – Ten Commandments which have been given to Moisey by God on Mount Sinai – exist and work more than 3,000 years …

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